The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has released its Financial Stability Report in which it highlighted the highlights of its annual Systemic Risk Survey (SRS).
SRS is a tool to assess market participants’ perceptions of risks to the Sultanate's macro-financial stability.
The 2026 survey was conducted between February and April and includes responses from abroad range of stakeholders across the financial system.
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the five most significant risks from a list of 20 hypothetical adverse events and to assess both their probability and potential impact. The expected impact score for each event was calculated by combining these two dimensions.
Consistent with previous years, geopolitical risk and unfavourable oil price movements remain among the most significant sources of systemic risk, reflecting their potential implications for economic activity, fiscal performance and external stability.
Cyber risk has become increasingly prominent in the 2026 survey, ranking among the highest perceived threats to financial stability.
This reflects the continued digitalisation of financial services, greater interconnectedness across financial institutions and increasing awareness of cyber threats amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Recent regional developments, including the Iran-US conflict, have further reinforced concerns over cyber resilience and the potential for operational disruptions affecting critical financial infrastructure. Respondents also assigned greater importance to IT infrastructure disruption, highlighting the need to strengthen operational resilience across the financial sector.
Overall, the average expected impact score increased from 8.79 in 2025 to 10.6 in 2026, indicating that respondents perceive systemic risks as not only more likely to materialise but also potentially more severe in their impact. Graph 1.1.6 presents the ranking of the key systemic risks identified in the 2026 survey.
The systemic risk perception matrix for 2026 classifies risks based on their probability and impact.
Compared to 2025, the results indicate a greater concentration of risks in higher severity categories, reflecting the overall shift in sentiment.Two risks are identified as having “Very High” expected severity: geopolitical risk and cyber risk. In addition, risks such as unfavorable oil price movement, risk associated with global economic downturns and banks IT Infrastructure disruption are classified as “High” severity, requiring close monitoring.
The increasing concentration of risks in higher severity categories suggests that systemic risks are becoming more clustered, which could amplify spillover effects in the event of a shock.
At the lower end, risks such as declines in Oman’s Forex reserves, bank profitability, and funding conditions are still perceived as limited in severity, although they remain important from a forward-looking perspective.
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